Problématique du daufinat : Le RPG pourra-t-il conserver le pouvoir après Alpha Condé ? Reviewed by Momizat on . Alpha Condé a-t-il déjà choisi son dauphin ? Voilà une question que ne se pose pas encore la plupart des Guinéens, mais qui pourtant mérite bien d’être posée. I Alpha Condé a-t-il déjà choisi son dauphin ? Voilà une question que ne se pose pas encore la plupart des Guinéens, mais qui pourtant mérite bien d’être posée. I Rating: 0

Problématique du daufinat : Le RPG pourra-t-il conserver le pouvoir après Alpha Condé ?

qui-300x164Alpha Condé a-t-il déjà choisi son dauphin ? Voilà une question que ne se pose pas encore la plupart des Guinéens, mais qui pourtant mérite bien d’être posée. Il est vrai que les coutumes de chez nous obligent à fermer les yeux sur la succession du chef. Il est comme indécent de penser à ce qui se passerait après lui (maladie, mort ou renversement). Cela est culturel. Mais ce n’est pas une raison pour s’interdire d’y penser.

La preuve en est que même la constitution, qui est la loi fondamentale, a prévu les cas de vacance de pouvoir. En Guinée, depuis la 2ème République, l’intérim est assuré par le président de l’Assemblée nationale. C’est un élu du peuple comme le président de la République. Peut-on alors le considérer comme un dauphin du président ? Oui dans une certaine mesure. Mais pas véritablement. Car il se pourrait que le président de l’Assemblée nationale ne soit pas issu du camp présidentiel ou même qu’il ne soit pas le choix du président alors qu’il est de son camp. Ce président d’Assemblée nationale est donc un ‘’dauphin constitutionnel’’. Dans le cas de la Guinée, Kory Kondiano est le dauphin constitutionnel, comme El Hadj Biro Diallo ou El Hadj Aboubacar Somparé l’ont été pour le Général Lansana Conté. Même si la constitution n’a pas été respectée après la disparition de Conté. Comme cela avait été le cas à la mort de Sékou Touré. Dans les deux cas, il y a eu coup d’Etat militaire. Aussi la question est de savoir si ces dauphins constitutionnels sont des véritables choix du président de la République pour le remplacer ? L’on pourrait en douter. Dans le cas d’El Hadj Biro, on a vu comment entre le président Conté et lui les relations se sont dégradées.

Dans ses mémoires qui viennent de paraître aux éditions Le Seuil, l’ancien président du Sénégal, Abdou Diouf, témoigne qu’il a été choisi par le poète-président Léopold S. Senghor, alors même qu’il n’était que son directeur de cabinet, en 1964. Après plusieurs postes ministériels, il deviendra Premier ministre en 1970. L’intérim de la présidence de la République en cas de vacance de pouvoir étant alors assurée par le président de l’Assemblée nationale, personne ne pensait que le choix de Senghor pour lui succéder un jour était déjà fait. La réforme constitutionnelle faisant du Premier ministre le dauphin constitutionnel n’interviendra que quelques jours avant la démission de Senghor, prenant de court tout le monde. Sauf Abdou Diouf, qui avait su garder le secret pendant plus de quinze ans. Mais aux côtés de Senghor, il avait appris et avait été mis au fait de toutes les affaires de l’Etat sénégalais, pour pouvoir valablement reprendre le flambeau le moment venu. Pendant une vingtaine d’années, il a gouverné en étant un chef d’Etat respecté en Afrique et dans le monde.

Au Cameroun et en Côte d’Ivoire, c’est à peu près la même chose qui était prévue. Mais les choses se sont moins bien passées. Ahmadou Ahidjo et Paul Biya se sont irrémédiablement brouillés quand le second a remplacé le premier, alors que Houphouët-Boigny, qui avait constitutionnellement réglé le problème de sa succession avant sa mort, n’a pas pu empêcher le terrible tiraillement entre son Premier ministre Alassane Ouattara et le président de l’Assemblée nationale, Henry Konan Bédié, le dauphin constitutionnel.

Pour en revenir à la Guinée, en imaginant qu’Alpha Condé sera réélu cette année, cela voudrait dire qu’il sera au pouvoir jusqu’en 2020. Sauf catastrophe. Et même dans ce cas, qui pour le remplacer ? Constitutionnellement, on a dit que c’est le président de l’Assemblée nationale. Actuellement, il a pour nom Kory Kondiano. Est-il évident qu’il soit le candidat du parti pour la présidentielle ? Peu sûr. Alors, qui pour défendre les couleurs du RG-Arc-en-ciel en 2020?

Si on prend l’exemple du Sénégal avec Abdou Diouf, il est possible que le futur remplaçant d’Alpha Condé (à la tête du pays ou du parti ?) soit déjà connu du président. Mais rien ne fait penser à lui. Question de le protéger des nombreux prédateurs qui gravitent autour du chef et qui n’hésiteraient pas à lui mettre des bâtons dans les roues. Pourtant, il faut bien lui mettre les pieds à l’étrier…

L’on sait que dans cinq ans, beaucoup seront frappés par l’âge et ne pourront pas prétendre à la succession du président. Cependant, nombreux sont aussi les jeunes qui pensent déjà (en silence) à cette éventualité. Dans le gouvernement ou dans le monde des affaires (suivez mon regard !)

Mais cinq ans, c’est long et même très long. Et les écueils sont nombreux sur le chemin du pouvoir. Les possibilités de chutes sont innombrables et des nouveaux noms peuvent apparaître tout au long de cette période qui va voir se tramer toutes sortes de coups fourrés.

Les grandes batailles autour de la succession d’Alpha Condé ne sont pas encore à l’ordre du jour, mais nécessairement, elles le seront quelques temps après l’élection présidentielle de cette année. Donc, à partir de 2016-2017. Cependant, pour être fort et engranger les suffrages des Guinéens, le dauphin (constitutionnel ou pas) doit descendre dans l’arène politique. Il lui faut se trouver un bastion politique ; soit une base à partir de laquelle il pourra faire passer son message et conquérir plus sûrement les populations. Pour le moment, rien ne se dessine dans ce sens et on peut penser qu’Alpha Condé a bien l’intention de faire en sorte que son parti lui survive, contrairement à ce qui s’est passé jusqu’ici avec les partis dominants qu’ont été le PDG de Sékou Touré et le PUP de Lansana Conté. Tous deux se sont littéralement effondrés à la disparition de leurs leaders. Le RPG-AEC pourra-t-il conserver le pouvoir après Alpha Condé ? C’est tout l’enjeu de cette question du dauphinat. Alpha Condé va-t-il préparer quelqu’un pour lui succéder ou va-t-il laisser faire, avec le risque de voir son parti disparaitre à jamais de l’échiquier politique guinéen. Un parti qu’il a bâti de ses propres mains envers et contre tout, pendant de longues années. Difficile de le croire.

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