La Grèce sortira t-il de la zone euro après avoir dit NON aux exigences de ses créanciers? Reviewed by Momizat on . Les 19.000 bureaux de vote ont fermé à 19 heures en Grèce. Les électeurs ont tranché : ils refusent les nouvelles réformes exigées par les créanciers du pays. E Les 19.000 bureaux de vote ont fermé à 19 heures en Grèce. Les électeurs ont tranché : ils refusent les nouvelles réformes exigées par les créanciers du pays. E Rating: 0

La Grèce sortira t-il de la zone euro après avoir dit NON aux exigences de ses créanciers?

La-GreceLes 19.000 bureaux de vote ont fermé à 19 heures en Grèce. Les électeurs ont tranché : ils refusent les nouvelles réformes exigées par les créanciers du pays. En contrepartie, la République hellène risque de se retrouver rapidement à court de liquidités, voire de sortir de la zone euro, un scénario catastrophe qui sera au cœur de plusieurs réunions de crise dans les prochains jours.

La question posée aux 10 millions d’électeurs grecs dimanche 5 juillet était la suivante : « Faut-il accepter le plan d’accord soumis par la Commission européenne, la Banque centrale européenne (BCE) et le Fonds monétaire international (FMI) lors de l’Eurogroupe du 25 juin ? »

Les résultats sont encore provisoires mais dessinent déjà une large victoire du « non ». Selon les estimations communiquées par les autorités du pays, les électeurs Grecs seraient 61 % à avoir suivi l’appel de leur Premier ministre Alexis Tsipras contre les exigences des créanciers du pays, une hausse de la TVA et une réforme des retraites notamment.

François Hollande et Angela Merkel se réunissent lundi

Opposé à toute forme d’austérité supplémentaires, le premier ministre hellène avait rompu soudainement les négociations avec ses partenaires européens il y a 9 jours. « Le peuple grec a prouvé qu’il n’est pas soumis au chantage, à la terreur et la menace », a écrit dimanche soir, Panos Kammenos, le dirigeant du petit parti des Grecs Indépendants (Anel) qui participe à la coalition gouvernementale de la gauche radicale Syriza.

En Espagne, Pablo Iglesias, le chef du parti antilibéral Podemos, allié de la Syriza, a estimé peu après la tombée des premiers résultats que la « démocratie l’a emporté en Grèce ». Le gouvernement de Tsipras espère désormais revenir plus fort à la table des négociations… bien que rien ne lui garantisse qu’il y soit encore convié. Un Eurogroupe organisé mardi à Bruxelles devrait permettre d’avoir un premier aperçu des conséquences de cette consultation.

Dans un communiqué diffusé dimanche après-midi, l’Elysée a déjà indiqué que « la Chancelière allemande Angela Merkel et le Président de la République François Hollande auront, lundi 6 juillet au soir à l’Elysée, un entretien suivi d’un diner de travail pour évaluer les conséquences du référendum en Grèce. » Mais si la Présidence française a réitéré dans ce message son intention de « contribuer à une solution durable en Grèce », le vote des Grecs plonge bel et bien leur pays dans l’incertitude la plus totale.

Quel lendemain pour la Grèce ?

Sans attendre le résultat du référendum, le président du Parlement européen Martin Schulz évoquait dimanche dans une interview au journal allemand Welt am Sonntag la possibilité d’accorder des prêts d’urgence à Athènes. « Nous ne laisserons pas tomber les gens en Grèce », a-t-il promis.« Peut-être que nous devrons accorder des crédits d’urgence à Athènes pour que les services publics continuent de fonctionner et que les gens dans le besoin reçoivent l’argent nécessaire pour survivre ».

Mais sur le long terme, c’est la grande inconnue. La BCE, la Commission européenne et le FMI, qui ont déjà versé plus de 230 milliards d’euros d’aide ou de prêts à la Grèce depuis 2010, risquent de purement et simplement suspendre toute autre forme de plan de sauvetage.

La fin de non-recevoir opposée à leurs propositions de réformes dimanche soir est donc une victoire en demi-teinte pour le Premier ministre grec, puisque celle-ci ne résoud pas la crise et risque de bloquer l’arrivée de nouvelles liquidités dans le pays. Le porte-parole du gouvernement grec a d’ailleurs révélé dimanche après-midi que la Grèce s’apprêtait à demander à la Banque centrale de relever le plafond des liquidités d’urgence (ELA) pour les banques grecques.

Une sortie de la zone euro ?

Si les institutions européennes décidaient de ne plus aider la Grèce, le pays qui n’a déjà pas pu honorer sa dernière dette à l’égard du FMI (1,5 milliard d’euros le 30 juin), ne pourrait sans doute pas rembourser les 3,5 milliards d’euros qu’il doit à la BCE le 20 juillet.

Dans le pire des cas, ce référendum pourrait même aboutir à un Grexit, une sortie de la Grèce de la zone euro, et donc à un retour à l’ancienne monnaie, la drachme, ce qui provoquerait une forte inflation des produits importés et donc une sévère baisse du pouvoir d’achat des Grecs déjà à la limite de l’asphyxie.

Outre les difficultés économiques qu’une telle sortie provoqueraient (l’euro accusait déjà une forte baisse dimanche soir), les relations politiques entre la Grèce et ses partenaires européens en sortiraient certainement dégradées. Un Grexit signerait par ailleurs un échec cinglant de la construction européenne aux yeux du monde.

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